Thursday, February 25, 2010

Dollar mixed as economic data worsens worldwide

The dollar was mixed Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke repeated a pledge to keep interest rates low to help strengthen the economy, while the euro briefly fell below $1.35 on worries about economic growth in the U.S. and Europe as well as European debt problems.

Initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week while measures of economic sentiment in Europe and business investment in Britain declined.

In late trading in New York, the 16-nation euro edged up to $1.3545 from $1.3528 late Wednesday. Before Bernanke spoke during semiannual testimony before Congress, the euro traded as low as $1.3452. That's just shy of a 9-month low of $1.3444 hit on Feb. 19.

Just last November, the euro traded above $1.51 before worries over debt loads in Greece and other European countries began to roil bond markets.

Meanwhile, the British pound fell to $1.5246 from $1.5398 after hitting its lowest point since May 2009 at $1.5191 earlier in the day.

Bernanke told lawmakers the central bank is looking into the use by Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms of high-risk financial instruments to make bets that Greece would default on its debt. He also repeated a message he delivered Wednesday that record low interest rates are still needed to make sure that the budding economic recovery is lasting and to help relieve high unemployment.

Keeping rates low can weigh on the dollar as investors seek higher returns in other markets.

The European Commission said Thursday that economic sentiment in the 16 countries that use the euro deteriorated in February for the first time in nearly a year. In the U.K., meanwhile, business investment dropped 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a "double dip" in British economic growth, said analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman in a research note.

Meanwhile, credit ratings agency Moody's seconded a warning from Standard & Poor's, saying it could also cut its credit rating on Greece within a month if the heavily indebted country doesn't follow through with its deficit cuts.

The dollar fell to 89.13 Japanese yen from 90.15 yen as investors also flocked to the low-yielding yen's perceived safety — but was up broadly against Asian currencies, currencies in the Nordic countries, and currencies in countries that are big exporters of commodities, such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, as well as the Brazilian real.

Big exporters tend to drop on weaker-than-expected economic news, as a slide back into recession or a weak recovery means companies and consumers need less energy, steel and other raw goods.

The economic recovery is a concern in the U.S. as long as jobs remain scarce. The government said on Thursday that new claims for unemployment aid rose 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000. The four-week average, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations, has risen by about 30,000 in the past weeks. The Federal Reserve has said it expects the unemployment rate to average from 9.5 percent to 9.7 percent this year.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department had mixed news about manufacturing. Durable goods orders rose 3 percent in January because of a jump in commercial aircraft orders. It was the biggest increase in six months for orders of goods that are expected to last at least three years.

However, orders fell by 0.6 excluding volatile transportation orders. Economists expected those orders to rise 1 percent.

In other late trading in New York, the dollar slipped to 1.0804 Swiss francs from 1.0817 francs, but climbed to 1.0626 Canadian dollars from 1.0553 Canadian dollars late Wednesday.

Fed to look into insurance contracts on Greek debt


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers Thursday that the central bank is looking into the use by Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms of high-risk financial instruments to make bets that Greece would default on its debt.

Bernanke said the Fed is examining companies' use of credit default swaps, a form of insurance against bond defaults. He made the comments at the start of a Senate Banking Committee hearing. It marked the second day that the Fed chief has testified on Capitol Hill about the economy.

Bernanke also:

• Said the severe snowstorms that recently affected the country will likely have a short-term effect on unemployment and layoffs. He said policymakers will "have to be careful about not overinterpreting" upcoming data.

• Argued anew against Senate efforts to strip the Fed of its powers to regulate banks, saying such a move would be a "grave mistake."

• Said Congress must tackle the thorny issue of how to overhaul Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the government in 2008 as they faced mounting losses from mortgage defaults.

• Repeated a message he delivered Wednesday to the House Financial Services Committee: that record-low interest rates are still needed to ensure the economic recovery lasts and to help relieve high unemployment.

On credit default swaps, Bernanke said, "Obviously, using these instruments in a way that intentionally destabilizes a company or a country is counterproductive. We'll certainly be evaluating what we can learn from the activities of the holding companies that we supervise here in the U.S."

The panel's chairman, Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., cited reports that financial companies are using credit default swaps to bet that Greece will default on its debt. He's troubled that this practice could worsen Greece's debt crisis.

"We have a situation in which major financial institutions are amplifying a public crisis for what would appear to be private gain," Dodd said.

Dodd said he wondered whether there should be limits on the use of credit default swaps to prevent "the intentional creation of runs against governments."

Securities and Exchange Commission spokesman John Nester wouldn't say whether his agency is looking specifically into the credit default swap arrangements between Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs, and Greece.

"As an agency, we have been examining potential abuses and destabilizing effects related to the use of credit default swaps and other opaque financial products and practices," Nester said in a statement.

SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro has advocated bringing the financial instruments under government regulation.

Goldman Sachs earlier this week defended currency swap deals it undertook with Greece to reduce that country's debt, saying the impact of the transactions was minimal and within the rules.

Even though the economy is growing again, senators on both sides of the aisle worried about high unemployment — now at 9.7 percent — rising home foreclosures and difficulties people and businesses have in getting loans.

"The state of our economy as a whole may be improving, but if we're talking about the situation of ordinary American families, I think I can sum up this recovery in three words: not good enough," Dodd said.

Senators pressed Bernanke for ideas about what Congress can do to help out, especially in bringing down unemployment. The Senate on Wednesday approved a package aimed at generating jobs by giving companies a tax break for hiring the unemployed.

Bernanke shied away from providing recommendations. But he did say that if additional stimulus measures are approved, it would be "very constructive" to pair them with a plan on how the government intends to shrink record-high deficits later.

The chairman argued that disarming the Fed of its authority to regulate banks would deprive it of information needed to set interest rates and influence economic activity. Bernanke also warned that the Fed would lose insights into the health of individual banks and of the entire banking system.

Dodd has wanted to rein in the Fed's power and remove it from overseeing banks as part of a broader legislative revamp of the nation's financial structure. That conflicts with the Obama administration's stance, as well as the approach taken by House lawmakers in their financial overhaul bill.

On Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bernanke said: "Right now, we're kind of in no-man's land. Fannie and Freddie are in conservatorship. They are part of the government's efforts to maintain the housing market, because there really is no other source of mortgages at this point or mortgage securitization. But, certainly, this is not a sustainable situation."

He said an overhaul is needed to eliminate this "platypus kind of — you know, neither fish nor fowl status that those firms have now," he added.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday that the Obama administration will wait until 2011 to propose a revamp of the mortgage companies.

___

AP Business Writer Marcy Gordon contributed to this report.

yahoo.com

US Fed examines Goldman deals in Greece


The US Federal Reserve is reviewing the role of Goldman Sachs and other firms to helped Greece hide its debt problems, chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday.

Bernanke said the central bank was examining Wall Street firms' transactions with Greek authorities that could have exacerbated Greece's fiscal woes.

"We are looking into a number of questions related to Goldman Sachs and other companies and their derivatives arrangements with Greece," said Bernanke, in response to a lawmaker's question during testimony to Congress.

Greece's troubled finances are already under close scrutiny by European Union regulators amid fears that its problems could spread to other members of the 16-nation eurozone.

Greece's total debt, estimated at 300 billion euros (404.6 billion dollars), or 113 percent of gross domestic product, is nearly double the 60 percent eurozone limit, while its public deficit at 12.7 percent of GDP is more than four times the maximum level under eurozone rules.

The Greek authorities also have come under fire over a currency swap arranged with Goldman Sachs that allegedly enabled Athens to mask debt almost a decade ago as the country joined the eurozone.

Bernanke, wrapping up two-day report on monetary policy, was asked by Senator Christopher Dodd whether Bernanke believed there should be limits on the use of credit default swaps (CDS) to prevent the intentional creation of runs against governments.

Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, noted that banks and hedge funds are reportedly using credit default swaps -- a sophisticated instrument that provides insurance against defaults -- "to bet that Greece will default on its debt."

Dodd said those bets were making it more difficult for the crisis-hit Greek government to borrow critically needed money.

"Since there is no requirement that purchasers of credit default swaps actually own any of the underlying debt, we have a situation in which major financial institutions are amplifying a public crisis for what would appear to be for private gain," he said.

Bernanke said the Fed was looking into "this issue as well," noting that CDS "are properly used as hedging instruments."

But, the Fed chief said, "obviously, using these instruments in a way that intentionally destabilizes a company or a country is -- is counterproductive."

Bernanke said he was "sure" the financial markets watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), would be looking into that.

"We'll certainly be evaluating what we can learn from the activities of the holding companies that we supervise here in the US," he added.

Dodd said he was formally asking the Fed and the SEC to report back "very quickly" on the matter, "a critical issue for all of us."

The SEC, contacted by AFP, declined to say whether there was an investigation of Goldman Sachs underway.

SEC spokesman John Nester said: "We have been examining potential abuses and destabilizing effects related to the use of credit default swaps and other opaque financial products and practices."

Douglas McIntyre at 24/7WallSt.com said Goldman Sachs helped Greece defer but not eliminate its day of reckoning.

"Goldman?s argument will be, as it usually is, that is was the only company smart enough to help Greece with its debt problems but it is not at fault in the matter of the deception," he said. "It supplied the gun, but did not pull the trigger."

Jobless claims rise in weak recovery

JOB PICTURE STILL BLEAK: New claims for jobless benefits rose sharply last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Most of the rise resulted from state agencies processing a backlog of claims left over from two weeks ago when snowstorms closed government offices.

IMPROVEMENT STALLS: Still, a steady drop in claims in the second half of last year has stalled, a sign layoffs are no longer declining. More layoffs could weaken consumer spending and slow the recovery.

WEAK ECONOMY: Other recent economic reports have also been disappointing, evidence that economic growth may weaken later this year.

Fed emergency loans to banks decline

Banks borrowed less from the Federal Reserve's emergency lending program over the past week, another sign that strains on private credit markets are easing.

Commercial banks averaged $13.96 billion in daily borrowing for the week that ended Wednesday, the Fed reported. That was down from $14.26 billion in average borrowing in the previous week. At the height of the financial crisis, discount window borrowing exceeded a daily average of $100 billion.

The Fed last week boosted the interest rate it charges on discount window borrowing by a quarter-point to 0.75 percent as part of the central bank's efforts to unwind the exceptional support that had been provided during the financial crisis.

Banks have been scaling back their use of the Fed's emergency discount loan window as the financial crisis has eased and banks have found their normal sources of credit more readily available.

The central bank is phasing out a number of emergency programs it had created to deal with the financial crisis which struck with force in the fall of 2008.

The Fed's weekly status report on Thursday showed that banks are making less use of many of these programs.

The average value of the central bank's holdings of short-term debt known as "commercial paper" stood at an average of zero for the week ending Wednesday.

The Fed had established the program to purchase commercial paper as a way to increase the availability of financing used by businesses to fund crucial operations such as payroll and supplies. At its peak in January 2009, the Fed held almost $350 billion worth of commercial paper.

The Fed said that banks' use of short-term loans drawn from the Fed's "term auction credit" program stood at an average of $15.43 billion for the last week, down by $1 billion from the previous week.

Even with all the reductions, the Fed's balance sheet — a broad measure that tracks the Fed's lending activities — stood at $2.29 trillion for the recent week, more than double the level before the financial crisis struck.

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